No responsible for marketing dream that his "Stone", one that would allow him to reach potential customers with the highest impact and least effort possible. The penultimate fashion was to identify early adopters , this group of innovators to adopt a new product and thanks to their influence lead to the adoption of it among his group of emulators. Marketing gurus still defend from the rostrum of the best business schools this model, which would allow the miracle to see how they get stuck, just throw a small hook, all consumers of the potential target. The thing has its importance because the current army of market researchers has failed to end the mass media, that pernicious practice torpedo fishing anchovies.
And it seems that those who sell this technology to find early adopters it will be easy. As my friend Felipe in an excellent article "The scheme of majority and minority leaders-all of society ignores the actual social fragmentation, as referred to a homogeneity that no longer exists. [...] Take a reference group to consider early adopter and diffuser can be counterproductive, depending on what social groups. "You can not say more clear. The increasing fragmentation of society concerning the unviable-or ineffective, both da-identification system that early adopters. Come on, that diversity grows so large that the effort is equivalent to having as many references as potential consumers, so it will be of little help in locating expert references.
Why is it so difficult to predict whether a product will be successful or not? A recent research published by the journal Science offers a little grip to the market researchers suffered. The article works on the "paradox of success" which attempts to describe the fact that some books, songs and movies are a hit exorbitant compared to other relatively similar products in which they have invested similar amounts in communication. A team of sociologists and economists have investigated this paradox through an "artificial market", in which more than 14000 participants could download online songs unknown to them, in some cases without information of those chosen by other participants, and other with that information. What we have seen is that social influence is one of the determinants of selection. It is true that the quality was also influenced, and that good songs were preferred to the poor. But among the most successful songs were bad songs well referenced and among those who were not selected were good songs that many did not bother to listen.
Therefore, the success lies in quality and some parts of social influence. A major reason for choosing a particular album or book is to know that other people-not necessarily the early adopters- have chosen before. That is, the selection of a product, while ensuring a minimum quality is not very sophisticated procedures. "If they liked a lot of people, seems to think the consumer, sure I like me." And if knowledge of this preference is extended, it will cause a chain reaction in the rest of potential consumers, will become a best seller. So things like we not only themselves, but because they like to others. It is understood in this way the enormous capacity of the radio-prescription formula: the more people hear a song, more people end up liking the music.
Does this solve how to anticipate the success of a product? Not affecting the channel or format for influence - ads?, "Blog? - But in what essential: we must ensure that people know that many people use. Remember the old philosophy of 68 - "one hundred thousand flies can not be wrong: eat shit all" - but signed by serious people pass through the fine sieve of the scientific method.
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